Deputy Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party leader Nick Clegg is in real danger of losing his seat
The United Kingdom's general election is almost here, and it's anyone's guess how things will turn out. Things looks extremely tight in the final days of the race, with the polls bouncing between 1-3 point leads for both Labour and the Tories. A tie or Labour lead on election night would likely result in Labour leader Ed Miliband becoming prime minister, but a small Tory lead could make the result too close to easily resolve.
In a previous post, we took a look at the electoral landscape, where Prime Minister David Cameron is fighting for a second term against Miliband. However, while nationwide polls can give us a general idea where things stand, this contest will be decided in the 650 electoral districts (known as constituencies). Whichever candidate emerges with the most votes in each constituency becomes its member of Parliament (MP), so we could see some last-minute tactical voting that's hard to account for even in constituency-level polling.
It's unlikely that either the Conservatives or Labour will hold a majority of seats after May 7, so they'll need to turn to smaller parties to keep them in power. Besides the Tory and Labour numbers, we'll want to keep an eye on a few other parties. The Liberal Democrats have served as the Tories' junior coalition party for the last five years, and their backing of Conservative austerity policies has enraged many left-wing voters. The Lib Dems are all-but certain to lose many of the 56 seats they hold, but it's unclear how deep the damage will be. If there are enough Lib Dems and Conservatives left at the end of the night to keep Cameron in power (possibly with the help of some even smaller parties), we'll probably see another coalition, though it's not impossible that the Lib Dems could ally with Labour this time.
While Labour is certain to gain seats in England and Wales, it's facing massive losses in Scotland to the Scottish National Party (SNP). Miliband won't be happy to lose those constituencies, but the SNP has made it clear that they won't support a Tory government. Miliband has ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP, but it's quite possible we could see a more loose and informal partnership, which we'll explore in greater detail later in this post.
The UK Independence Party (UKIP) is also likely to be a factor on Thursday. UKIP has called for taking the UK out of the European Union in large part to restrict immigration, and it has siphoned votes away from the major parties, particularly the Tories. But while UKIP polls well in England, its support isn't concentrated in any one region, so it's unlikely to win a plurality in more than a handful of seats. The Lib Dems are very pro-EU, so we almost certainly won't see a formal coalition with the Tories, Lib Dems, and UKIP. Still, if UKIP has enough constituencies to keep Cameron in power, we may see some sort of negotiation. Several smaller parties can also play a role, which we explore in more detail here.
Head below the fold for a race-by-race look at the key contests Thursday, and an exploration of what might happen after the election, too.
Overview of Election Night
In the United Kingdom, all polling stations are open from 2 AM to 5 PM ET (7 AM to 10 PM local time). Citizens of the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland, or any Commonwealth country (such as Canada) who reside in the U.K. can vote, but citizens of European Union countries cannot (they can in certain other elections).
At 5 PM (all times in this post are Eastern), polls close and a joint BBC/ITV/SKY exit poll will be revealed, giving viewers an early indication of how the night will go. In both 2005 and 2010, the exit poll was very accurate compared to the final result, but Britons still remember how the 1992 exit poll predicted a hung Parliament, only for the Tories to win a small but comfortable majority.
As soon as the polls close, election officials start counting the ballots. Many parts of England also have local elections happening concurrently (though not London) which could delay election announcements somewhat. Sunderland South (now Houghton & Sunderland South) traditionally is the first to report, announcing first for the last five general elections. They will likely come in between 6-7 PM, followed by a trickle from 7-10 PM. That includes the first competitive seats (known as marginal seats), such as Nuneaton and Northampton North, which could go for either the Conservatives or Labour.
Then starting at 10 PM, a deluge of seats will be called, and the results of even a very tight overall race should be clear by 1-2 AM. Miliband's safe seat will declare at around 11 PM and he will speak soon after, while Cameron's safe seat will declare at 11:30 PM. Liberal Democratic leader and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg's seat also declares at 11:30 PM, but it's not clear if he'll be giving a victory speech or a concession speech. The final seven seats don't report until the next day, including one CON-LAB marginal (Warwick & Leamington, conceivably the final deciding seat) and two CON-LD marginals.
BBC will have extensive coverage all night and will have streaming video of their main channel online with no restrictions. We've also created a Twitter list for the election as well as a list of marginals and some relevant information about them that you can use to follow along on election night.
Sixteen Races to Watch
Below is a chronological look at when some notable seats will declare on election night, with links to recent polling where available. Once again, all reporting times are Eastern.
• Houghton and Sunderland South (Safe LAB; North East; 6 PM): This seat has a long tradition of being the first constituency to declare despite its lack of competitiveness. In 2010, Labour won exactly 50 percent of the vote to 21 percent for the Tories and 14 percent for the Lib Dems. How those margins change could give an extremely early peek at how the night will go. Also watch UKIP vote total, as they will substantially increase from 2010's 2.7 percent.
• Nuneaton (CON held, LAB challenge; West Midlands; 8 PM): The first marginal constituency to declare, Labour will be looking to take the first of many seats from the Conservatives. Pollsters Michael Ashcroft has twice surveyed the seat and found Labour up 3 points. A tight result either way will augur toward a long night, but a clear win for either party could presage a decisive overall victory for one side or the other.
• Northampton North (CON held, LAB challenge; East Midlands; 9 PM): Another early Labour target of the Conservatives, this seat has voted for the winning party in every election since 1974. This seat is a rematch between former Labour MP Sally Keeble and the Tory who defeated her, Michael Ellis. If Conservatives lose both this seat and Nuneaton, they are in trouble.
• Rutherglen & Hamilton West (LAB held, SNP challenge; Scotland; 9 PM): The focus of a recent article on Labour's problems in Scotland, this seat hasn't been polled but interpreting Scottish and nearby constituency polls give both Labour and the SNP an equal chance. In 2010, Labour won it 61-16. Other Scottish Labour seats the party may have a chance to hold on against the SNP landslide include Dunfermline & West Fife, Renfrewshire East, Paisley & Renfrewshire North, Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill (all 10 PM), and Edinburgh South (11 PM).
• Belfast East (ALL held, DUP challenge; Northern Ireland; 9 PM): Peter Robinson, Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader and Northern Ireland First Minister, shockingly lost this seat following a scandal in 2010. It was the first constituency won by the non-sectarian Alliance Party, but the DUP believes it can win the seat back. The seat is part of an electoral pact between the DUP and the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), meaning there will only be one branded unionist candidate on the ballot. The DUP is closer to the Tories while the Alliance Party is affiliated with the Lib Dems, though Alliance does not belong to the current coalition.
• Thurrock (CON held, UKIP/LAB challenge; South East; 10 pm): While Labour lost this seat to the Tories by a mere 92 votes in 2010, it has become one of UKIP's most promising targets. This constituency has been polling better for UKIP than the seat its leader Nigel Farage is contesting, so a failure to win here means a poor night for the UKIP.
• Brecon & Radnorshire (LD held, CON challenge; Wales; 10 PM): Considering the number of seats the Lib Dems are expected to lose, they aren't actually involved in that many competitive races. Of their 56 seats, 24 are seen as likely losses, with another 17 seen as safe holds. That leaves just 15 competitive seats, almost all against the Conservatives. The CON-LD marginals tend to declare very late, but this Welsh seat should give an early look at how the Lib Dems will fare. This is a must-win for them to be able to retain 25-30 seats for the next Parliament.
• Bermondsey & Old Southwark (LD held, LAB challenge, London; 10 PM): One of the very few competitive LAB-LD marginals, this is another early-declaring seat that the Lib Dems must hold. A loss here, if it's replicated in CON-LD marginals, would spell disaster for Clegg, and could send the party below 20 seats. The incumbent, Simon Hughes, has been an MP since 1983 and served as deputy leader of his party from 2010 through 2014. The prediction site May2015.com recently went in-depth on this constituency.
• Glasgow North East (LAB held, SNP challenge; Scotland; 10 PM): This may be the one seat in Scotland that prevents Labour from getting utterly wiped out up here, as Labour carried this constituency in 2010 with 68 percent of the vote compared to the SNP's second place showing of 14 percent. A January Ashcroft poll gave Labour a 7 percent lead; while polls have continued to drift in the SNP's favor, Labour is still expected to pull this seat out.
• Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (CON held, SNP challenge; Scotland; 11 PM): The Conservatives could oddly wind up holding the second-most seats in Scotland (behind the SNP), and it starts with the only Scottish constitency they won in 2010. Lingering anger over Margaret Thatcher's policies has made the Tories persona non grata in most of Scotland for decades, but they can win rural seats along the English border. The other two targets are Dumfries & Galloway (LAB held; 11 PM) and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (LD held; 11:30 PM), both of which are three-way CON-LAB-SNP races. As opposed to most Scottish seats, these contests could actually help determine whether Miliband has the numbers to form a government.
• Harrow East (CON held, LAB challenge; London; 11 PM): An unusually diverse Tory seat in London, with many Hindu and Muslim voters. Labour's candidate, Uma Kumaran, is the daughter of Tamil parents who fled civil war in Sri Lanka and is well-suited to the district. Ashcroft polling has shown Labour 4 percent ahead, good news for Miliband as the seat has voted for the winning party in every election since 1979.
• Cannock Chase (CON held, LAB challenge; West Midlands; 11 PM): Taken by the Conservatives in 2010 on an unusually large vote swing (14 percent), Labour is seeking to reclaim the seat while also confronting UKIP rise in the area. An Ashcroft poll in October 2014 showed UKIP in second and only 2 points behind Labour, but a more recent poll showed UKIP falling back and Labour with a comfortable 6-point lead. UKIP's final result here could be instructive of how they're doing across the English countryside.
• Sheffield Hallam (LD held, LAB challenge; North East; 11:30 PM): Labour would like nothing better than to knock off Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democratic leader who made Cameron prime minister. The most recent Ashcroft poll gave the Labour candidate a one percent lead, but a new Guardian poll showed tactical Conservative voters switching their allegiance from the Tories in order to save Clegg. A Clegg loss could put the Lib Dems in crisis just as a government is trying to be formed.
• Wirral West (CON held, LAB challenge; North West England; 12 AM): Tory Employment Minister Esther McVey is one of the more notable targets for Labour, seen as a rising star and possible future leader. But three Ashcroft polls have all given her Labour opponent, former teacher Margaret Greenwood, a small lead of 1 to 5 points. Wirral West is part of the last large group of LAB-CON marginals to declare, so this seat and the next one could decide the winner if the result is still unclear.
• Ealing Central and Acton (CON held, LAB challenge; London; 12 AM): Called the "King of the Kingmaker seats" in a report by think tank British Future, any Britons still awake will have their eyes on this constituency. A December 2014 Ashcroft poll gave Labour a 6-point lead, but that has likely narrowed over the past five months. Like Harrow East, this is one of the most diverse Conservative-held seats and Labour is again running a young minority woman from the area for the seat, Rupa Huq, a lecturer at Kingston University.
• Thanet South (CON held, UKIP/LAB challenge; South East; 1 AM): The Conservatives would like nothing more than to block UKIP leader Nigel Farage's election to Parliament. Farage has promised to resign as party leader if he fails to win the seat, which according to polling is a real possibility. Labour also led a poll here early on, but their share has drifted down, and if Labour voters move to one of the top two parties (much like Tories supporters in Clegg's seat), they could decide the winner.
Post-Election Possibilities
Short of a shock majority for either the Tories or Labour, there won't be an official winner on election night. Assuming Parliament is "hung" (that's Brit-speak for "no one has majority"), David Cameron temporarily remains prime minister and has the first opportunity to form a government. If the Conservatives, Lib Dems, and the Northern Irish party DUP have at least 323 seats, he should be able to do so easily enough. If he need the handful of seats UKIP may win, things could get more complicated but will likely still keep Cameron in power.
If Cameron cannot gain support from a majority of MPs, he has to resign, and Queen Elizabeth II would then ask Ed Miliband to form a government. (Some Tories have questioned whether the process should unfold this way, but the Cabinet Manual clearly states how things should unfold.) There are a few different ways to form a government (outside of winning a majority, of course):
• Coalition: This is what has governed the UK for the past five years, with the Conservatives and Lib Dems sharing power and government ministries. Nick Clegg, as the leader of the smaller party in the coalition, is the deputy prime minister (a role only sometimes filled) and four other Lib Dems received cabinet ministries. The two parties essentially govern jointly, though the larger party takes the lead.
• Minority with "confidence and supply": This is an agreement between a minority government and a smaller party for the smaller party to support the government on any votes of confidence or votes on the budget (the "supply" half of the equation). In return, the smaller party is usually guaranteed certain policy concessions on issues important to them. The smaller party does not have a role in governing and does not have any ministers.
• Minority vote-by-vote: The minority government does not make any long-term agreement with any party and governs by attempting to win each vote it puts forward on an individual basis. The minority government would run the country and control the parliamentary schedule, but could lose any vote if the other parties unite against the government. On some legislation, this would not reverberate beyond the bill itself, but if the ruling party lost a vote of confidence or a vote on the budget, it could lead to a change in government or a new election. The SNP led the Scottish Parliament from 2007-2011 as a minority government on a vote-by-vote basis.
Miliband has ruled out a coalition or confidence and supply arrangement with the SNP, meaning that if he forms a government it will almost certainly be a minority government going vote-by-vote. This puts his government at constant risk, but minority governments can succeed when the opposition is divided, as it certainly would be between the Conservatives and the SNP. These parties will feel pressure to vote for popular policies they support (such as the Trident nuclear subs for the Tories and spending increases for the SNP), which would make it easier for Labour to govern.
Another Election?
One of the reforms that the coalition succeeded in passing was the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, making it more difficult for snap elections to be held in the middle of a Parliament's term. Previously the prime minister could essentially call an election whenever he wanted, with a maximum five-year wait from the last one. Now elections are regularly scheduled for every fifth year in May, unless one of the following two events occurs:
• Two thirds of Parliament votes for an early election
• A no-confidence vote in the government succeeds and no conceivable government is able to win a confidence vote in the ensuing two weeks
This makes it extremely difficult for a governing party to call an early election, since it would have to support a no-confidence motion against itself. However, if Labour governs as a minority, the other parties could unite to force early elections any time they wanted. This seems unlikely, though, as the SNP is loath to even appear to be working with the Tories, and it's also impossible to imagine an election where the SNP would improve on its upcoming results (which should be huge for the party). So for all the talk of an unstable minority government and early elections later this year, there's a good chance a Labour minority government would last if it were able to take power in the first place.
We're expecting for one of the most exciting election nights in British history, and we'll be watching it closely. Check back at Daily Kos Elections starting at 5 PM ET on Thursday for our liveblog.